How Derren Brown Predicted The Lottery

Updated again: I've added the snowflake trailer, check out the comments for what I think the snowflake is about

Updated again: I've added a link so you can download a high quality version of the prediction to your computer.

Updated: I've added a bit more explanation of why I don't think it's a split screen setup.

Derren's snowflake trailer for tonight's reveal:

You can't pull of a stunt this big without a lot of scrutiny, and I applaud Derren for even taking on the stunt. Here's a video of the live prediction - or if you prefer you can download the video to your computer by clicking here (right click > save target as):

A split screen version showing the BBC and C4 at the same time:

Derren Brown seemed pretty nervous, and the whole thing seemed a bit chaotic and rushed. The key to the whole 'illusion' is that he doesn't actually predict anything. He doesn't reveal the numbers on his balls until after the draw has been done. A prediction would be revealing his numbers before the draw - and despite him going on about legal reasons, the real reason why he didn't show us the balls is because it's impossible, well a 1 in 14 million chance impossible. Also all the balls are white rather than their respected lottery colours - if you still believe Derren predicted the lottery numbers then you are mistaken, but it was good TV and has sparked a lot of debate! Derren is a truly amazing performer and deserves the press coverage which comes with attempting a stunt like this.

What's good about Derren's method is that by having the balls in view the whole time it allows people to easily rule out any time or broadcast delays - but I'm sure people would have had two TV's on when this was broadcast live anyways.

So how does he get the correct numbers on them balls? Well they 'appear' to be in view all of the time so they're not being swapped out, or sucked up and down that tube like I originally feared (seeing the balls shooting up and down as the draw came out would have been hilarious though!).

One idea is that the left part of the image is superimposed/split screen, allowing somebody to swap the balls. Although this is technically possible, and the "shaking" of the camera was a bit suspicious and could have been pre-programmed with a machine/software, I can't help but feel it would be harder than somehow getting the numbers onto the balls. For example, the "swapping" man would need access to 49 balls (or 45 if the ones already on the stand have numbers on them) so would need to swap them out quickly and quietly. What happens if he dropped a ball and it rolled onto Derren's side? Or makes some noise the mics pick up? Also, the balls were in numerical order, which means more faffing around with the balls after the last ball is drawn (although arguably not predicting the bonus ball would give some extra time). Either way, I'm not completely sold on this idea, but it might explain why the second cameraman was there, and maybe on Friday we get to see his footage of the event?

I think the true explanation is that he had to somehow get those numbers onto them plain balls. One solution would be some sort of "laser etching" device above the balls out of shot. Some evidence for this is he doesn't touch any of the "ink" (it might smudge possibly?), but when he turns the stand around the balls aren't aligned very well - and you'd imagine they would be if they had just been laser etched on by some precise machine.

Another idea is that the balls themselves have been designed to be able to display any number through the aid of some wireless input. Don't ask me to explain the technicalities behind this, as I wouldn't know where to start, but you can only speculate.

What is now apparent is that the numbers from the lamp-post/forward-splash.com website were red herrings - or rather the worlds biggest magic trick "out"! If, in the 1 in 14 million chance the numbers he had hinted at before the draw actually did come up then he would go down in history as a complete legend.

What's interesting is that the forward-splash website now has a different homepage, appearing to have been "hacked" (I believe it's a fake hack). The text says "Worship norg the one true God". I'm not sure of the significance of this text though.

forward-splash.com appears to have been properly hacked and defaced, the original site is now back up but they've replace the rapidshare borderwrenn link with "Phyllis Falsus" (Cheers Stephen).

So what's going to happen on Friday? Well Derren is apparently going to tell you how he predicted the lottery draw and how you yourself can do it. He's not going to be telling you the truth, in fact the Friday night show is simply misdirection away from the trick he actually used, and by revealing his "method" he is just re-affirming that he did predict the lottery numbers - when he didn't! By the looks of it he will be trying to paint a picture of him analysing all the numbers and god knows what else in order to come to his prediction. I suspect a twist at the end of the show though, maybe revealing that it was all a trick? Who knows

Got any more solid theories about how Derren did it? Feel free to leave a comment below

Comments

Comments
derren, brown, how, predicted, lottery, numbers,
Posted by DomZ on 11/09/2009 at 15:47 pm